Published Saturday 2/20/21 at 9 am.
A small disturbance will move south this afternoon resulting in snow falling before and after the front passes through. Telluride, Ouray, and Red Mountain Pass will see the biggest impacts. Light snow could spillover to Silverton, Rico, Purgatory, Mayday, and Wolf Creek with a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Here is the latest advisory:
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2021
COZ018-202100-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0015.210220T2100Z-210221T1200Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
304 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED, HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
This is a fairly aggressive advisory. If it were me I would scale it back just slightly. Some areas may indeed get 10 inches or more but it likely will fall in uninhabited areas. Montrose will get a dusting, Ridgway will get a couple of inches. Telluride and Ouray will likely be in the 3 to 6-inch range.
Here is the latest high-resolution NAM 3km.
You can see a couple of bullseyes in blue.
Looking ahead, the models are (predictably) out of sync. The Euro is bringing in a storm for Wednesday and Thursday. A respectable storm at that. The GFS and Canadian don’t see it. Usually, the Canadian comes around as time goes on. The GFS takes longer. The Euro has been showing this feature since Thursday night. It could be a couple of days before the models get in sync, it will be interesting to see who wins.
I was asked if I thought we were done with snow in the lower elevations, the answer is no. I think we are going to evolve back into an active period of weather as we head into March.
Next Update Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!