Published Monday at 12:30 pm
Happy meteorological spring! Meteorologists simplify our seasons: March 1st is spring, June 1st is summer, September 1 st is fall, and meteorological winter starts December 1st. They do this to make it easier to compare data from year to year.
After 24 hours of additional model runs, there is still pretty good agreement on the track and duration of our first winter storm of the spring.
Here is the storm right now circled in purple.
The storm is still expected to come onshore late Wednesday and move into our area very early Thursday morning. I have not seen the models slow the arrival yet, but closed low-pressure systems have a habit of taking their time to come onshore, so don’t be surprised if this happens. With that being said, the models actually sped the arrival up with this morning’s model runs.
If the timing does not change, we will be waking up Thursday to snow. The snow will continue through the morning. Right now there is a few degrees of spread among the models for Thursday’s high temperatures which will determine when the snow will change over to a mix or rain in the lower elevations. If you are following the NOAA point forecasts, they are warmer than all of the models I have looked at for highs on Thursday (as of Monday at 11:00 am)
Here are the latest model runs.
GFS (which is now the most bullish on overall precipitation totals)
German (which is most bullish for the three Ski Resorts)
Sick of winter? It looks like we will flip into a warmer pattern starting on Friday for a few days. Not that sick of winter? No worries, the models are already showing another storm about a week after this one. Most models show cooler and unsettled weather sticking around for a while after the 10th.
Next Update Tuesday, thanks for following and supporting the site!