Tuesday Update On Thursday’s Storm

Published Tuesday 3/2/21 at 12:30 pm

Not a lot of changes in the last 24 hours, at least not in the short term. All of the models are set on a slightly earlier arrival at the moment. We will see if there are any last-minute adjustments later today and tonight. If there is not, precipitation could start between 11 pm Wednesday and 2 am Thursday.

This is not likely going to be a big storm for the lower elevations. There is a bit of a spread in the model runs for precipitation over the resort areas and some mid-elevation areas north of 160. This will likely lead to advisory level snowfall for those areas.  I would not be surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch issued as early as this afternoon, but no later than tomorrow morning for 6 to 12 inches for areas above 8,500 feet.

Because of the spread among the models for higher elevation precipitation, I am going to include some additional models to the four that I usually post.

I will start with the GFS. NOAA is working on a GFS upgrade, I have access to the beta version. I don’t use it that often, but I noticed that it is showing some similarities to the Euro and Canadian in the long-term forecast so I thought I would bring it into the line-up. The regular GFS  has a different solution in the long term.


New GFS beta




NDFD, which is the National Weather Service high-resolution blended model.

Lastly, the WPC model. This is NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center high-resolution blended model.

Sometimes these models generate more of a “wishcast” than a forecast, but I wanted to share them in case some of the higher totals come to fruition.  The low is still out over the ocean, so you never know.

Two updates tomorrow, one in the morning and the other late afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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