Published at 1:50 pm on Wednesday.
As I watched the radar images of the system coming onshore in SoCal (12:30 pm) I was a bit surprised how much convection this system has. It looks like the morning run of the high-resolution NAM 3km model missed this.
With temps in the 40s and 50s, this is not a picture-perfect day for those parts! I used to travel frequently to LA when I had an office there. My two favorite things to watch were afternoon car chases and the media coverage anytime it would rain.
The main question is, does this mean the storm is stronger than we thought and will be stronger when it arrives? None of the morning models except the Euro showed a colder storm when it came onshore. Even though the Euro detected the deeper pressure, it didn’t change the precipitation amounts. The Euro is and has been forecasting higher amounts of precipitation for lower elevations than the other models.
Here is the latest Euro run.
The German model is showing a slightly further south storm track.
I don’t usually use medium resolution models on storm days. I prefer high-resolution models, but this time I am going to blend the four medium-resolution models. The afternoon high-resolution NAM 3km model is out and it too looks to have missed the boat on the SoCal convection.
Here are my forecasts for snow, the amounts are before melting occurs Thursday afternoon.
Northern New Mexico will more than likely see very light rain and some of it may be freezing rain.
Cortez: A trace to an inch of snow with the possibility of freezing rain.
Dolores, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio: 1 to 3 inches.
Mid-elevation areas including Pagosa Springs and Ouray: 2 to 4 inches.
Vallecito, Lemon, Tween Lakes Durango Hills and Aspen Trails areas above 7,800 feet: 3 to 5 inches.
Mayday, Rico, Purgatory, Silverton, and Telluride 4 to 7 inches.
Wolf Creek: 7 to 10 inches.
Snow will taper off in most areas except for Telluride and Ouray in the afternoon.
Things will warm up slightly over the weekend. Previous runs of the Euro and the current and previous runs of the Canadian model show some more precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. It is something to keep an eye on but I have low confidence in that happening at the moment.
For those of you who are hoping for more, good news! It looks like by the middle of the week we are going to transition into a colder and stormier pattern.
Next Update Thursday, thanks for following and supporting the site!