Wednesday Morning Storm Update–Advisory Issued

Published at 7:30 am Wednesday

Overnight the models remained consistent with the arrival of the storm. They show the snow starting before 2 am in all areas at or above 6,500 feet.

The models are not consistent with QPF (precipitation). This is going to lead to a tricky forecast. One positive that I noticed with last night’s Euro run was that the core of the storm was slightly cooler than it had been in previous runs.

Here are the models from last night.

Euro

Canadian

The GFS is changing every 6 hours so I am going to wait on that until the morning run is out. The NOAA and WPC blended models have a large dose of the GFS in their blends which I think is affecting their accuracy as well.

Here is the new advisory out this morning.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 AM MST WED MAR 3 2021

COZ019-032200-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0017.210304T0600Z-210305T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
310 AM MST WED MAR 3 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM MST THURSDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

Next update this afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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