This Week–A Mixed Bag

Published Sunday at 8:20 am

A slight chance of showers are possible in the higher elevations tomorrow. The models show very light accumulations with light rain or mist across the lower and middle elevations. The models are not very successful when it comes to these types of events. Plan on nothing, don’t be surprised if you get a light shower. Tuesday should warm up slightly from Monday.

Wednesday looks like a bit of a transition day as cold air could bring some snow showers. Colder air will move in for Thursday. We will likely see unsettled weather (cooler and wetter) through Saturday depending on the track of a closed low-pressure system.

I am going to put the maps into motion for you so you can see what I am referring to.  Before I do that, let me explain what you are going to be seeing.

On the map above I circled a couple of features in green. The first is a squiggly red line. If you follow the red line up you will see  I also circled “546”.  I also circled a blue line and if you follow that up you will see I circled “540”.  You will also see blotches of light blue which indicate snow for the precipitation type. The blotches of green indicate rain. The darker the shade the heavier the precipitation rate.

The “54o line” tells me that if there is precipitation it could snow down to 5,000 feet. Under the “546 line” the snow level is 6,500 feet. 552 would be 8,000 feet.

Hopefully, that makes sense. Here is the Euro’s forecast for Tuesday evening through Monday morning. It will repeat itself when it is done, so you may want to watch it a couple of times.

The models get there in different ways but here is what they are showing for precipitation totals from now through next weekend.



New GFS(beta)


The elephant in the room is the copious amounts of moisture the new version of the GFS and the Canadian models are showing in northeast Colorado and on the plains in this run. Yes, it is all snow. Obviously, this could have huge travel implications. I’ve learned not to completely dismiss these types of runs, especially when more than one model is showing it. Another thing to remember is that March is Denver and the Front Range’s snowiest month of the year.  For now, I am just going to keep an eye on it.

In the longer term, beyond next weekend, there is still a struggle to determine if we will go back into an extended cold and wet pattern or not. There are a lot of signs pointing towards that, not just for the west but the entire country. If I were a betting man, I would say chances are much greater that winter is far from over.

Next Update Monday, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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