Pre-Game Show For The Super Bowl Of Models

Published Saturday at 8:50 am

It’s too early to complain about model discrepancies, I know. It is all I have been talking about. Yesterday, I mentioned that if you wake up and it is not snowing, that is because the storm has slowed. And that is the case. A narrow band of snow hit areas from Dove Creek to Cortez overnight and I just got a report of 4 1/2 inches already in Dolores, but that has been the extent of the action so far.

Here is the system churning off to the west as night turned to day.

The various high-resolution models are in poor agreement for our area. The one that did the best with the overnight snow was the NAM 3km.

Here is what that model’s latest run shows for snowfall between 5 am this morning and 6 am Sunday (time change).

The model shows the snow slowly moving into the rest of the forecast area today.

I hope to get some more clarity after the next set of model runs. Again, this is between 5 am Saturday and 6 am Sunday.

Lower elevations with the exception of Cortez, Dolores, and Mancos, up to 2 inches.

Cortez, Dolores, Mancos, 1 to 3 inches additional with heavier amounts east of town close to Menefee Mountain.

Most mid-elevation areas including Ouray should receive 1 to 3 inches with 2 to 4 above 7800 feet.

Purgatory, Silverton, and Mayday, 4 to 6 inches.

Telluride, Rico, and Wolf Creek, 5 to 9 inches.

There are a number of scenarios that can affect this forecast, especially the speed and track of the low. If this low does not start moving east, Cortez, Dolores and Mancos could receive much more snow early today. If it continues to stall out as it drifts slightly east, then our whole forecast area would get pounded. I mentioned this briefly yesterday. I said part of me was hoping the system would stall out over our area. I also said it is unlikely, and I am going to stick with that until I have reason to believe otherwise.

That’s all for now, next update this afternoon, I will include Denver and the Front Range at that time. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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