Update From The First Quarter Of The Bowl Game Of Models

Published at 1:05 pm Saturday

It started snowing in DW2 about an hour ago. The temperature has dropped 6 degrees since it started. It initially looked like fog. What actually happened was the snow was just 1000 feet or so overhead, the air at the surface had to saturate from the top down before the snow would reach the ground. That happened and it is still snowing and accumulating on the grassy surfaces and old snow piles. (As of 1 pm it has stopped snowing in my neighborhood)

If it has not started snowing in your area it probably will soon. Hopefully, the same cooling will happen. It sure would have been nice to have this system arrive 8 hours earlier as was first predicted.

As of 12:30 pm, I see the snow has started in Durango. It has been snowing in Telluride, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek as well. My last report from Dolores was 8 inches and the snow had stopped. In and around Cortez I had reports from 3 to 5 inches. Reports from areas around Mancos have been in the 3-inch range.

I am not going to make any changes to my forecast. I am most concerned about Wolf Creek and Purgatory. If you missed it you can go back and read it. I only forecasted amounts through 6 am Sunday. I think we will have better data by tomorrow morning.

Here is the latest satellite. You will notice the system to the west is not as pronounced as it was when I posted at 9:30 am. The energy is being drained into what will be the surface low over southern Colorado.

Snow is getting started in the Denver area after a morning of drizzle.

Here at the latest snowfall forecasts for the Denver Metro area and adjacent foothills.




Old GFS (which is being retired this week I believe)

Thanks for the reports, it helped me figure out the model errors that occurred for the western portions of the forecast area. As I mentioned earlier I have low confidence overall in my southwest Colorado forecast. These low accumulating storms are what I call high-risk low-reward storms. You put in a lot of work and have a very high chance of busting with very little upside if you nail a 2-inch forecast!  Don’t worry, more snow is on the way this month (as early as Monday night or Tuesday) and hopefully, it won’t be as tricky of conditions.

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