Trimming Back The Tuesday Totals

Published Tuesday at 9:55 am

Snow showers broke out overnight depositing 2 inches of snow at Purgatory, Telluride, and Wolf Creek as well as 2 inches in downtown Silverton.

Overnight the models started trimming back the snow totals. This morning the high-resolution NAM 3km model continued the trend. This is likely in response to the models shifting the storm track just slightly further south than what they were showing yesterday.

This may lead to upside surprises and downside surprises by late this evening. Snow should start up again in the next few hours in the mountains. Slightly heavier snow will occur in the mid to late afternoon. Below 7,600 feet, expect a drizzly mix.

Here is the latest high-resolution guidance for additional snow through Wednesday morning.

The models are showing very little accumulation at Purgatory. I am thinking 1 to 3 additional inches possible despite what the models are forecasting. 1 to 3 inches would be an upside surprise.

Telluride and the northwestern San Juans may not get as intense of a favorable flow as the system departs the area. Yesterday the models were showing the favorable flow contributing to decent accumulations.  I still think 2 to 4 inches additional are possible.

Wolf Creek becomes a wild card because some models show the storm tracking a bit further north as it progresses east of us. I am going to say 5 to 8 inches. However, the bust potential on both sides is very high at Wolf Creek.

With the swing in the models overnight, this is another low confidence forecast. I am already tracking the system or systems that may affect us next week. This is going to be a classic battle of the Euro and Canadian versus both GFS models. The overnight Canadian and Euro both showed snow starting late Sunday into Monday with periods of light and heavy snow through Friday. The GFS models both show the snow holding off until Wednesday. We will see.

Next Update Wednesday morning. Thanks for all of the reports over the weekend, and as always thanks for following and supporting the site!

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