Published Tuesday at 12:40 pm
Some of the weather models are really getting excited about this next round of snow. My biggest challenge is the timing between when this storm completely leaves our area and when the snow starts from the next system due to arrive late Thursday. My suspicion is that Telluride and Wolf Creek are going to blur the lines between the systems and may just see things taper off to very light snow throughout the day on Thursday before the next round comes in later that day.
A Winter Weather Advisory starts at noon today for 4 to 8 inches. Here is t wording or the WWA.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 AM MDT TUE MAR 23 2021
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
343 AM MDT TUE MAR 23 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 10000 FEET…
* WHAT…MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW COULD MELT AS IT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GREATER IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
Here is what the Pueblo NWS has for Wolf Creek.
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW
10000 FEET-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
1118 AM MDT TUE MAR 23 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN…FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.
Here are the models’ snowfall forecast totals between now and Thursday morning at 9 am. There will be melting throughout the day Wednesday. That being said, it looks like there could be a few bands that come through tomorrow morning which definitely could impact driving conditions, even below 6,500 feet.
NAM 3km high-resolution
This model is very bullish on snow totals. If it verifies, my forecasted totals will be too low. This model is projecting a storm track that would make the very most out of this storm system for our forecast area. I hope it is right but I am not going to go all-in on it.
Travel could become very difficult over the passes from this evening through noon tomorrow. The lower elevations will be impacted from 3 am to 9 am tomorrow morning.
Here are my forecasts.
Cortez, Farmington, Aztec: 0 to 2 inches (before melting)
Durango, Mancos, Bayfield, Ignacio, Ridgway, Pagosa Springs: 1 to 3 inches (before melting)
Mid elevation including Ouray: 3 to 5 inches with higher amounts possible above 7,800 feet
Mayday, Purgatory, Telluride, Rico, Silverton: 5 to 9 inches
Wolf Creek: 8 to 11 inches
It is looking like the Thursday system is going to have very similar totals to this system if not a little higher.
Thanks in advance for the snow reports. Next Update Wednesday morning. As always, thanks for following and supporting the site!