Published Tuesday at 11:10 am
Scattered snow showers are breaking out over some of the higher elevations and passes this morning. There is a chance that some of the precipitation will roll off of the mountains and fall as light rain this afternoon in some of the mid and lower elevations. The Euro, Canadian, and NAM 3km are all showing show insignificant accumulations today and tonight. The GFS is the outlier and is showing accumulating precipitation this afternoon and evening.
GFS liquid
GFS snow
As I said, the GFS is the outlier. However, if the GFS is correct I may have to put more weight than I usually do in its short-term forecasts.
The big story is going to be the wind. Boooo… Wednesday and Thursday could be the windiest days so far this spring. BTW, I get more complaints about the wind than any other weather topic. Nobody likes the wind. Not even me. Especially with the dry conditions we have been experiencing this month.
There is still some discrepancy among the models on where exactly the windy conditions will occur on Thursday. But for Wednesday, it is going to be windy here as well as SE Utah, NW New Mexico, and Northern Arizona. The highest gusts in our area will occur over the passes but as you will see below, high gusts will materialize in most areas.
Here are the model forecasts for peak wind gusts between noon and 6 pm Wednesday.
NAM high-resolution 3km
GFS
Euro
I am not sure why the Euro is showing lower gusts from Bayfield to Pagosa. I would not count on that.
All of the models are still indicating rain and snow for the weekend. They are also showing snow levels lowering. We’ll see, I am going to hold off on the accumulation talk for at least another day or two.
My next update will be Wednesday If you have not seen the details for this year’s contest you can read them here: Second Annual Drawing For Cash Prizes
Thanks for following and participating in the contest again this year!