Monday Update

Published 5/3/21 at 8:40 am

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Yesterday, I mentioned the importance of the position of the low-pressure area. While scattered showers will be possible throughout the day, the best precipitation will fall to our north. Grand Junction down to Montrose should do very well.

The models this morning are showing the best chances of precipitation for today above 7,000 feet especially north of 160.


NAM 3km



National Weather Service blended model

Very noticeable on those last three models is the dreaded “Durango donut”. For those of you new to the area, this means that almost all of the good stuff occurs outside of the “donut hole”.

What could change that is a couple of pop-up thunderstorms. Even without decent surface heating, the sun angle is equivalent to early August right now. There is plenty of instability overhead and CAPE values are going to be elevated today. Elevated CAPE values can lead to thunderstorm development.

CAPE values

I usually look for values above 450. Most of the lower and mid-elevations areas will be in that range from noon to 4 pm.

If you are in an area where thunderstorms develop today let me know.

Next update Tuesday, thanks for following and participating in the contest!

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2 thoughts on “Monday Update

  1. Maureen Keilty

    I was gone for the weekend but last night when I checked my temp gauge it showed the high of 85! Did that really happen on Saturday or Sunday? I’m at 828 E. 6th Ave., near downtown.
    As always, thanks for your updates and explanations.

  2. Frank Masiarz

    Rain here at the intersection of CR 228 and 502 !! Awesome….huge drops…like a monsoon !! Nice noisy cloudburst !!

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