Published Thursday 5/6 8:15 am
There are now 20 prizes in the contest. A couple more prizes are going to be added when I update the prize list in a week or so. The Second Annual Prize Drawing Version 3 Updated May 1st
On Saturday a system will pass to our north and may trigger some thunderstorms in the mountains Saturday afternoon with snow around 11,000 feet.
The ridge of high pressure will max out today. The ridge will begin breaking down tomorrow as a system moves into the Pacific Northwest. This system will continue moving east throughout the day on Friday. By Saturday, it will stretch from Canada through Wyoming and into Utah. The tail end of the system will move from Utah into Western Colorado and will lead to some afternoon convection. The higher elevations above 9,000 feet will be favored for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow will be possible around 11,000 feet, however in heavier showers the snow level could drop to 9,500 feet.
At this time I don’t see this producing any beneficial moisture in the lower elevations. Gusty winds will develop Saturday and Sunday, stronger than we have been experiencing so far this week. Temperatures will peak today and Friday. Saturday and Sunday temperatures will moderate by 5 to 10 degrees with lower elevations back down to around 70 degrees.
The models diverge beginning Sunday night into Monday. The Euro is currently showing light showers developing Monday mainly in the high country. The GFS and Canadian are showing a system close off across our region with a better chance of showers developing across the forecast area. This is unusual, the GFS is usually faster with systems moving across the region. The Euro’s bias is to try to close systems across the area with increased chances of precipitation. In other words, these models are acting the opposite of their normal biases.
As always, I will be keeping an eye on the situation and will post again when I see models change course in either direction.
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