Published Saturday 5/6 at 8:25 am
There are now 20 prizes in the contest. A few more prizes are going to be added when I update the prize list a week from now. The Second Annual Prize Drawing Version 3 Updated May 1st
A system will pass well to our north today. As I mentioned yesterday, this system is likely to trigger some showers and thunderstorms in the higher elevations. The snow levels will be high between 10,000 and 11,000 feet. They may drop slightly as cold air filters in from the north. People venturing into the high country this afternoon should be prepared for rain, snow, lightning, and gusty winds.
For most of us, the impacts will be wind and cooler temperatures. Highs today should be about 10 degrees less than yesterday. The northern portions of the border counties and elevations above 9,000 feet will have the best chance of seeing precipitation. The morning high-resolution model guidance shows a pop-up storm south of Durango between Aztec and Durango. We’ll see.
On Sunday, precipitation chances drop slightly. The models are showing enough instability in place to trigger a few afternoon storms. The same areas that are favored today will be favored on Sunday. High temps will drop another few degrees and snow levels will lower slightly. Gusty winds will be a factor for the next few days. The models are in good agreement that, with a couple of exceptions in the NW San Juans, very little beneficial precipitation will fall this weekend.
A large, deep area of low-pressure will settle into the region by Monday. The models are moving closer together with their forecasts than they were yesterday. The GFS is still too ambitious with the system, in my opinion. Another 24 hours of model runs may result in a more realistic solution.
The next update will be Sunday. Thanks for following and participating in the contest!