A Nice Spring Day

Published Sunday  5/7 at 8:25 am

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Yesterday, the tail end of a system passing by to our north resulted in some spotty showers in the northern portions of the forecast area, mostly north of Glacier Club up to Ouray. Accumulations were very light. Most of us just experienced windy and slightly cooler conditions. More of the cooler and windy conditions are on tap for today. Chances of precipitation are significantly lower than yesterday.

The last several days have shown slight chances of light showers developing in the mountains this afternoon. The latest model runs show none of that happening today. Because the models were forecasting this for days I would be inclined to leave a slight chance of precipitation in the forecasts for the high country (but I doubt it). The simulated cloud cover parameter from the morning high-resolution model shows periods of clouds and sunshine this afternoon. This leads me to believe that anything that would develop would evaporate before it hits the ground.

Overnight the models came into very good agreement about the system moving into the region by Monday. The GFS returned to its normal bias of moving the system quickly to the east and not letting it develop over SW Colorado. The Euro is in pretty good agreement with that analysis. Because the GFS did a 180 overnight, I still cannot take it at full face value. Before I write this system off completely I think another 24 hours of model runs will hone the forecast.

My next update will be Monday morning.

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