Published Tuesday 5/11/21 at 10:40 am
A few more prizes are going to be added when I update the prize list Saturday, May 15th. Both cash and merchandise. The Second Annual Prize Drawing Version 3 Updated May 1st
I did get a report from Ouray of some nice showers last night followed by a dusting of snow overnight. Other than that, as expected, there was very little impact of the storm that continues to deliver precipitation to the Northern Mountains and Eastern Plains of Colorado.
Weather forecasters and enthusiasts are a strange breed. When a period of boring, tranquil, and what most people would describe as beautiful weather is on the way, we get depressed. My exception is if I am heading to a beach or an island for a vacation. With no Islands or Oceans anywhere close, I have to face the facts. For the next several days, I will no longer be able to pull into my driveway and ignore the length of my lawn. I am going to have to do something about it.
Temperatures are going to increase each day. At the moment, the models are showing almost no precipitation in the forecast in SW Colorado, at least through Sunday. The models are trying to sniff out a chance of showers developing next Monday. The longer-term ensemble models are showing multiple chances of showers over the 7 day period beginning May 17th.
Here is what that looks like when you put the maps into motion. Green is rain, snow is blue. There are 6 hours between every frame. You can see the showers developing from the middle of the days and throughout the afternoons during this period. This is the GFS ensemble model. This model is made up of 21 models within its “family”. Although the GFS daily model has had its struggles, its ensemble model is often better than the Euro for forecasting trends over the long term.
If I look up the total precipitation anomaly over that 7 day period it shows that it is average. After a couple of months of below average, I’ll take average.
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