Here Comes The Ridge

Published Thursday, May 13th, 8:20 am.

This Saturday I will be updating the prize list. At the moment, it looks like I will be adding 8 additional prizes. The Second Annual Prize Drawing Version 3 Updated May 1st

The ridge moves overhead today. The result will be much warmer temperatures, and of course, winds. Next week a couple of troughs will move into the west and as I mentioned two days ago our chances of precipitation will increase.

The GFS ensemble models continue to show the best chances of precipitation. The Euro ensemble models are showing better chances of precipitation than they were two days ago. The Canadian ensemble models are showing more frequent precipitation throughout the week than the Euro ensembles. None of the models are forecasting heavy precipitation at this time.

So we will stick with the GFS ensemble models right now because I think they have a better handle on what is happening with the tropical activity around the Indian Ocean. I have not talked about the MJO for a while, but what happens in the Indian Ocean can have a big effect on the weather in North America and throughout the world.

Here is the latest run from the GFS ensemble model. What you see is the average of all of its 21 model family members.

Enjoy the warm weather if you are a fan. Make sure you tune in on Saturday morning for the updated prize list in this year’s contest.

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