Monday–Transition Day

Monday 5/17 at 8:40 am

I updated the contest prize list on Saturday. 28 prizes are available in the contest, 9 of those are cash!  The Second Annual Contest Drawing Version 4 Updated 5/15/21

Moisture will be on the increase today. Showers will develop this afternoon over the higher terrain with snow possible around 11,000 feet.  Short-term high-resolution model guidance shows scattered showers drifting into some of the mid and lower elevations after 5 pm. We’ll see.

Tomorrow chances increase for most areas getting some wetting rains. Most models are in rough agreement that this will happen. The exception is the Euro model. The Euro does show some scattered showers in most areas but is extremely conservative with its precipitation totals. The Euro has struggled with this system since it first showed up last week on the GFS. With Euro being the outlier, I am going to hold off on potential totals today. The German and Canadian models as well as the recent US NAM models are showing a lot higher low and mid-elevation totals than the Euro and GFS. The GFS is overdoing the high elevation totals and likely is undercutting the low elevation totals.

Here is a look at the NAM high-resolution model. It is showing the precipitation developing mainly in the higher terrain this afternoon. By Tuesday you can see it spreads the precipitation throughout the forecast area. This run is through Wednesday late afternoon.

On Wednesday the models diverge again with the Euro showing things drying out  Wednesday and Thursday, with afternoon showers returning Friday and Saturday. The other models show afternoon showers developing nearly every afternoon.

I should have plenty to talk about on Tuesday. Thanks for following and participating in the contest!

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