Better Chances for Showers Today

Tuesday 5/18 8:45 am

I updated the contest prize list on Saturday. 28 prizes are available in the contest, 9 of those are cash!  The Second Annual Contest Drawing Version 4 Updated 5/15/21

Moisture continues to stream into the region this morning. This has resulted in mountain rain and snow showers.

Here was Wolf Creek this morning

The precipitation totals have been creeping up with the models. Let’s hope this continues. Speaking of Wolf Creek, several inches of snow (before melting) are expected by tomorrow morning. This will likely lead to slushy conditions over the pass. The biggest travel issues will be on the east side of the tunnel.

Here is the snow forecast through Wednesday morning. The bullseyes are mostly around Wolf Creek.

For the rest of us, there is a much better chance of scattered showers today. This afternoon there is a good chance of thunderstorms developing. Here are the CAPE values (available energy) this afternoon.

When you start seeing those light blues and greens you are dealing with a pretty good chance of thunderstorms developing. If the sun somehow pops out for even a very short time today, it will increase the chances of a thunderstorm developing.

As I said earlier, the models have been trending up with their precipitation totals.

Here are the latest predicted totals between now and Wednesday morning.

This is the latest run of Euro. Previous runs basically showed nothing, this run at least shows something.

The GFS is now showing some low elevation accumulations

The high-resolution NAM run is featuring a Bayfield/Ignacio dry slot. This is the first time it has shown up. Either it is on to something or it is wrong. We’ll see.

On Wednesday the showers will be more of a convective nature. This means they will be less predictable and will occur where thunderstorms form. Thursday looks like it will be another transitional day. At the moment, it looks like another larger wetter system will come in for Friday.

Next update Wednesday morning. Thanks for following and participating in the contest!

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