Published Thursday 5/20 at 8:50 am
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Yesterday a few showers developed during the day and overnight hours. I saw a lot of activity on the radar but webcams showed very little of that precipitation hitting the ground. I only got one report of accumulating precipitation so I am not sure who got what. The one report I did get was 1/2 of an inch of rain near Bayfield between 1 am and 2:30 am.
Today will be a warm and windy day. There are very low chances of storms firing this afternoon. Of course, never say never around here especially in the higher terrain. Tomorrow, things look like they are going to get very interesting!
Models continue to show a near-perfect storm track to bring us some decent wetting rains throughout the entire forecast area. Precipitation could start as early as 3 am Friday morning. Friday will be a cool and wet spring day. Showers are likely to fire again on Saturday but they may be a little more scattered. The bulk of the precipitation will fall on Friday, but at the moment Saturday looks more wet than dry.
The model agreement has been very impressive this week. The models’ projected precipitation output has increased quite a bit overnight. Left-over activity on Saturday has increased as well. This makes sense, given the amount of precipitation that is being forecasted for Friday. Snow levels on Friday should hover around 10,000 feet. Heavier showers could result in snow falling down to 9,000 feet or lower. I do expect travel to be impacted on the passes.
Here are the most recent model runs showing the precipitation totals for Friday and Saturday. I would lean towards the lowest totals based on past model performance. I am including all of the others so you can see how they have trended over the last 24 hours.
National Weather Service high-resolution blended model
Weather Prediction Center high-resolution blended model
I would love to see some storm reports throughout the day on Friday and Saturday.
Next update Friday, thanks for following and participating in the contest!