A Better Chance Of Scattered Storms

Published 6/3 Thursday at 8:40 am

I am not expecting a repeat of Monday, but this afternoon storms could fire once again. If you are new to the area, we are getting to the time of year that you have to plan for thunderstorms nearly every afternoon at or above 9,000 feet.

In the lower and mid-elevations the thunderstorms are more scattered. June is our driest month, sometimes we have “dry” thunderstorms that can elevate fire concerns.

On Monday I got a lot of emails from people who are new fans of CAPE. Again, CAPE is a meteorological term and acronym for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is a measurement of the total amount of energy (fuel) in the atmosphere to develop thunderstorms. In our area, a value of over 500 indicates an environment favorable for storm development. While high CAPE values don’t guarantee thunderstorms, it would be very unusual to have a value of 1500 to 2000 and not have thunderstorms. On Monday our CAPE values were in that range. Today the values will peak between 600 and 1000+.

Here are the forecasted CAPE values this afternoon.

2 pm

3 pm

4 pm

5 pm


6 pm

Tomorrow looks pretty similar to today. Saturday is still a question mark. I expect a chance of storms, but it is too early to tell how big of a chance that will be.

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2 thoughts on “A Better Chance Of Scattered Storms

  1. Frank Masiarz

    Real rain……intersection of CR 228 and 502 at 7,750 feet elevation. Amount unknown right now…rain is steady and substantial too.

  2. Pamela A Coppinger

    3 1/2 miles north of Mancos on CR 40. We received a light sprinkle earlier today. And about 15 minutes ago received a good little bit of rain. Didn’t last long. But long enough to make the air smell amazing! And the temperatures to drop!

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