Published Saturday 6/5 at 9 am
Yesterday the storms were few and far between which showed it takes more than just favorable CAPE values to coax a few storms out of the atmosphere. There has been a dry column of air from 18,000 feet down to the surface. This makes it difficult for precipitation to make it to the ground without evaporating when storms do fire.
Once again, the US models are painting a rosy picture for storms to develop this afternoon. Once again, the Euro model is not participating in that discussion. CAPE values are forecasted to be slightly lower today than yesterday. Hi-res model guidance shows an early peak by 2 pm, then a slight drop off, then a sharp increase in the values by late afternoon/early evening. For that reason, I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm.
In the absence of any major front or system moving across the areas, it is very difficult to predict whether or not these stray storms will develop. At the moment, Sunday looks like we will see very low chances of a thunderstorm developing. What we will see is a return of some gusty winds in the afternoon. That looks like it will be a common theme over the coming days.
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