Tuesday And Wednesday–The Hottest Of The Week

Published 6/15/21 at 12:40 pm

Everyone knows how I feel about the heat so I will spare you my personal commentary. There is some relief in sight, temperatures will cool back down by 10 or so degrees by late week and into the weekend.

Very little has changed with the weather models in the last 24 hours, The Euro is still the outliers when it comes to afternoon thunderstorms developing. The best chances will be in the highest elevations. The risk of dry thunderstorms is still a huge concern. It is too early to look at CAPE for Wednesday through Friday. It is too early to talk about the weekend. Let’s see how the GFS and Canadian handle the next few afternoons before getting excited about the weekend.

The best way for me to show you the model differences is to put the maps into motion. So will start with the Euro, which shows almost no activity. Here goes nothing…

As you might imagine, the precipitation totals are nearly zero with this model.

Next up is the GFS, whose bark is worse than its bite when it comes down to activity versus accumulation.

This is the GFS starting this afternoon and ending Saturday morning early.

You can see showers developing as indicated by the green over our area. The darker the shades the better the chances of the precipitation hitting the ground. The reason I said the bark is worse than its bite is evident when you look at the precipitation accumulation through Saturday morning. That being said, I would be delighted if the GFS is correct.

Next up, the Canadian model. The fact that Canadian and the GFS are in somewhat decent agreement is why I am even showing the GFS. In fact, the Canadian is showing the greatest accumulation of the 3 major models.

That last major push of precipitation by the Canadian on Friday is where the bulk of the precipitation comes in. Here are the totals according to this model.

Normally, the Canadian is closely aligned with the Euro and the GFS is the sole outlier. If the Canadian does not change by Thursday morning I will feel more confident in what it is showing.

the next update willbe Wednesday afternoon., Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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