Wednesday Update

6/16/21 Wednesday 9:45 am

Unless you just happened to be in the southern San Juans yesterday, you may not have known that thunderstorms were firing and rain was falling there. Why should we care about that? Because it is exactly what the GFS said would happen in that area. Here was yesterday morning’s GFS run showing precipitation between noon and 6 pm.

Here was the radar yesterday afternoon around 3:30 pm.

So again, why is this significant? The answer is that GFS performed better than all of the other models yesterday. I can’t say that means that the GFS will do the best going forward, but it does make me feel like this model may be on to something.

So here is the latest “map in motion” run from the GFS from noon today through early Saturday morning.

Here are the latest total precipitation runs through Saturday morning from the top three medium-term models.

Here is the Euro, it is clearly still unimpressed.

Here is the Canadian, this is last night’s run. The totals dropped slightly from the Tuesday morning run.

Here is the GFS, the model we should be rooting for. The totals are slightly higher and more widespread on this run.

This afternoon, we are going to have slightly elevated PWAT (precipitable water) and CAPE (available energy).  This means the chances of thunderstorms developing are slightly elevated over yesterday.

Here are the CAPE values today between 9 am and 9 pm.

The GFS has my attention after yesterday. Here is what it shows for precipitation between 3 pm and 9 pm today.

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