Thursday 6/17 12:30 pm
What a great response to the Vosburg Pike fire yesterday afternoon. Thanks to all who contacted me. If you have followed me for a while, you know that I have a lot of tools at my disposal for wildfires. However, not until the fire starts. It looks like they will get things mopped up over the next couple of days. Wind gusts are expected this afternoon and tomorrow, but the models are not showing anything unusual or volatile today and tomorrow.
For today, a quick look at CAPE values shows that the best opportunity for dry lightning and collapsing thunderstorms will be later this afternoon and into the evening.
Here are the predicted values from noon to 10 pm. The higher the value the better chance of development. There are a couple of spikes over 1000 this afternoon into this evening that caught my eye.
There are still model discrepancies over the next few days. Overall, the Canadian and GFS are a little less bullish on accumulating rainfall. The Euro is showing isolated showers Friday afternoon, mainly north of Glacier Club. On Saturday, the GFS is not showing afternoon showers, but the Euro and Canadian are. I am not sure why the GFS is diverging on Saturday while the Euro shows the best chances for widespread storms.
Either way, the models are showing the most rain in less inhabited alpine areas. For the lower and mid-elevations, models are predicting 1/10 inch or less with around 3/10 inch in some of the mid-elevation areas. The Euro is still the exception, showing much less. At least there is a little bit of green on the map today.
Here are the totals through Sunday morning early. At this point, I am not seeing any storms firing on Sunday.
Next update Friday, thanks for following and supporting the site!