Fry-day Update

Friday 6/18 10:45 am

Yesterday afternoon Pagosa Springs got a nice shower and a 40-degree temperature drop. I also got reports of light rain in Dolores. Near Mancos, a collapsed thunderstorm resulted in gusty outflow winds which damaged some agricultural structures. This afternoon don’t be surprised to see some more activity as CAPE values once again will be elevated after 12 pm. The peak values are forecasted to occur between 3 and 5 pm and will remain elevated this evening. Most of the models are showing the chance of storms continuing well into the evening, we’ll see.

Here is the CAPE forecast.

The models are mixed when it comes to precipitation. The GFS and Canadian are expecting some accumulations. The Euro and high-resolution NAM 3km model show very isolated pockets of very light accumulation. To sum things up, it is very difficult to predict which areas if any will get some showers.

Here are the models’ precipitation forecasts through Saturday at 6 am.


NAM 3km



At the moment, Saturday looks very similar to today. A quick look at CAPE tomorrow afternoon shows a slight uptick in values over what is forecast for this afternoon.

Next update Saturday, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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