6/19/21 Saturday 7 am
Friday afternoon I received the most rain reports I have had in a while. It was great to see a little bit of moisture and it helped cool things down around the forecast area. No one model outperformed another regarding where the activity would occur.
Today, we have slightly higher PWAT values. Precipitable water is a measure of how much precipitation would fall if it “rained out” over one spot. Dewpoints are up this morning as well. Both the dewpoint and PWAT values are forecasted to be a little higher throughout the day and especially this evening.
CAPE values will be similar to yesterday but higher CAPE extends further into the evening than yesterday.
Here are forecasted CAPE values beginning at 9 am and ending at 6 am Sunday. It is unusual to have the higher readings extend into the middle of the night. It could be model error. If it is not, it could be stormy this evening and overnight.
The models are putting all of the ingredients in place but they are not necessarily aligned on how everything will come together.
Sunday still looks like a quiet day, I will check in early tomorrow in case that changes. Thanks for all of the reports, and thanks for following and supporting the site.