6/2 Thursday 9:40 am
There were a few late-day showers yesterday with very light accumulations. I did get a couple of gusty wind reports as well. Precipitation totals where it did rain were generally 1/8 of an inch or less.
More of the same today with the first storms firing around the noon hour in the higher terrain. It is difficult to determine what other areas will win in the rain lottery today, or over the next couple of days. That being said this pattern should continue and the models are all agreeing that the next 10 days will be well above average for rainfall. The longer-term models show this pattern continuing into mid-July. I hesitate to look too far beyond that. A far as the monsoon season goes, all I can tell you is that I definitely see a monsoonal signature to the precipitation in early July. How long it will stick around is still up for debate. The new seasonal forecasts will be out on July 1st and may shed some light on that.
Back to the good news, when we have 3 models agreeing on above-average precipitation over the next 10 days it is worth taking a look at. Here is the model spread for the 10-day precipitation totals.
This is the time of year that I start to pay attention to tropical storm probability parameters in the models. Two things bust droughts, big winters, and tropical storm/depression remnants. The heaviest recorded rain totals in our area have been from remnants of tropical storms. The last time we had rain from the remnants of a tropical storm was 3 years ago.
Here is the tropical cyclone formation probability for the Eastern Pacific over the next 7 days. I am only showing the map for the next 2-5 days, but it looks the same for the days 1 through 7.
It is rare for us to get leftover moisture from a storm in the Gulf Of Mexico, but it is possible. The next 7 to 10 days look ripe for tropical storm development in the Caribbean.
Thanks for the reports, keep them up. Next update Friday, thanks for following and supporting the site!