6/25 Friday 10:40 am
Isolated to scattered (mostly afternoon) thunderstorms are expected for the foreseeable future. Between now and Monday, any accumulations will be mostly light in the lower and mid-elevation areas. Late Monday, through next Saturday, the story should change and heavier wetting rains will be more widespread and include the lower elevations.
There is nothing like a cloudy morning with a few sprinkles out there. That is what I call a fun Friday. The humidity is nice too. Having grown up in the midwest, it is unusual for me to say humidity and nice in the same sentence.
Rain overnight and in the morning presents a whole different challenge when it comes to forecasting. It can just as easily decrease your thunderstorm chances as increase your thunderstorm chances. In short, if it stays cloudy, despite the extra moisture present, the clouds decrease convection by limiting afternoon heating. A more favorable scenario is if you have the extra moisture present and the sun comes out for a few or several hours. That can really stir up some action.
One of the model parameters I can look at is predicted cloud cover. The hi-resolution model did not verify correctly as it showed clear skies at 6 am which was very wrong. The GFS and Euro did a little better, they are showing the clouds sticking around and gradually decreasing this afternoon. I do expect storms to once again start firing soon in the higher terrain. There is also what appears to be rain developing right now over the western portions of the forecast area. It looks like Cortez had some decent rain this morning and there is still hail/graupel evident on the roadway as of 10:15 am.
Yesterday, the afternoon model runs dramatically increased the 10-day forecast precipitation totals. They backed off a little overnight but are still higher than what I posted yesterday.
I am going to show you two maps for each of these three models. The first total is for Friday-Sunday. The second totals are for Monday through Saturday morning.
Euro through Sunday
Euro Monday through Friday
GFS through Monday morning
Monday through Saturday morning
Canadian through Monday morning
Canadian Monday through Saturday morning
The German model agrees, but I cannot break up the totals. Here are the totals between now and next Friday afternoon July 2nd.
Enjoy the change in the weather. Thanks for your reports. Next update Saturday morning, thanks for following and supporting the site!