Sunday 6/27 12:50 pm
Sorry for the delay in putting this out. I woke up early and saw the overnight Euro run was trending higher with its precipitation totals. I am glad I waited because the latest Euro run that is just coming out is continuing the trend of higher totals.
Yesterday the storms were pretty scattered to isolated. A big storm formed over the Elk Stream Ranch subdivision east of Mancos and just south of 160. I watched on the radar and knew that it was going to be a significant event. I got an email this morning from one of the residents who reported an inch of rain. None of the models predicted anything even close to that. This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to determine where the storms are actually going to set up on a day-to-day basis.
For today, scattered storms will once again fire this afternoon. The CAPE values will peak between 3 pm and 6 pm. This pattern is pretty locked in for the foreseeable future. I did get some reports of high-altitude snow the last couple of afternoons from 4 wheel drive enthusiasts. This will continue with the heavier storms above 12,000 feet throughout the week.
Here are the latest model forecasts for precipitation totals for the next 7 days.
GFS
Canadian
German
WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center blended model)
European
Next update on Monday, thanks for following and supporting the site!
Raining like crazy in Bayfield..actually thunder and pouring!! Just north of the high school in Dove Ranch. Started around 2:30 p.m. it’s 3:15 and still pouring !! Yeah!!
Sudden cloudburst for about 10-15 minutes at intersection of CR 228 and 502…elevation 7,750 feet…at about 3 P.M.. BUT…..only 0.09-inch of water !! Only 0.26-inch for the month..with an average over the years of 0.53-inch. Numbers courtesy of neighbor with records.
Rain and thunder again in Bayfield @ 6:50 p.m.