Sunday 6/27 12:50 pm
Sorry for the delay in putting this out. I woke up early and saw the overnight Euro run was trending higher with its precipitation totals. I am glad I waited because the latest Euro run that is just coming out is continuing the trend of higher totals.
Yesterday the storms were pretty scattered to isolated. A big storm formed over the Elk Stream Ranch subdivision east of Mancos and just south of 160. I watched on the radar and knew that it was going to be a significant event. I got an email this morning from one of the residents who reported an inch of rain. None of the models predicted anything even close to that. This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to determine where the storms are actually going to set up on a day-to-day basis.
For today, scattered storms will once again fire this afternoon. The CAPE values will peak between 3 pm and 6 pm. This pattern is pretty locked in for the foreseeable future. I did get some reports of high-altitude snow the last couple of afternoons from 4 wheel drive enthusiasts. This will continue with the heavier storms above 12,000 feet throughout the week.
Here are the latest model forecasts for precipitation totals for the next 7 days.
WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center blended model)
Next update on Monday, thanks for following and supporting the site!