Afternoon Storms All Week

Sunday 6/27 12:50 pm

Sorry for the delay in putting this out. I woke up early and saw the overnight Euro run was trending higher with its precipitation totals. I am glad I waited because the latest Euro run that is just coming out is continuing the trend of higher totals.

Yesterday the storms were pretty scattered to isolated. A big storm formed over the Elk Stream Ranch subdivision east of Mancos and just south of 160. I watched on the radar and knew that it was going to be a significant event. I got an email this morning from one of the residents who reported an inch of rain. None of the models predicted anything even close to that. This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to determine where the storms are actually going to set up on a day-to-day basis.

For today, scattered storms will once again fire this afternoon. The CAPE values will peak between 3 pm and 6 pm. This pattern is pretty locked in for the foreseeable future. I did get some reports of high-altitude snow the last couple of afternoons from 4 wheel drive enthusiasts. This will continue with the heavier storms above 12,000 feet throughout the week.

Here are the latest model forecasts for precipitation totals for the next 7 days.

GFS

Canadian

German

WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center blended model)

European

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3 thoughts on “Afternoon Storms All Week

  1. Debbie McArthur

    Raining like crazy in Bayfield..actually thunder and pouring!! Just north of the high school in Dove Ranch. Started around 2:30 p.m. it’s 3:15 and still pouring !! Yeah!!

  2. Frank Masiarz

    Sudden cloudburst for about 10-15 minutes at intersection of CR 228 and 502…elevation 7,750 feet…at about 3 P.M.. BUT…..only 0.09-inch of water !! Only 0.26-inch for the month..with an average over the years of 0.53-inch. Numbers courtesy of neighbor with records.

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