A Repeat Of Last Night?

Tuesday 6/29 1:15 pm

It was great to wake up to rain this morning. I received numerous reports ranging from .20″-.50+”.  Models are in decent agreement that we will once again see afternoon storms develop across the forecast area. Some models are extending the showers well into the evening and overnight hours once again.

The models are also showing a downtick in storm coverage across the area on Wednesday. I am going to take a wait-and-see approach to tomorrow, most models have struggled with storm development and precipitation amounts further than 24 hours into the future. Yesterday, I would have to give the most accurate model award to the GFS model. It only slightly overdid the precipitation amounts. The other models were far too low with their forecast amounts.

For what it is worth, here are the latest forecast amounts from the various models through 6 am Wednesday.





NAM Hi-Resolution

I enlarged the NAM 3k run so you could see some of the impressive bullseyes (above).  When I look back at some of the 7-day forecast totals that I shared over the weekend, I see that some of those totals have already been exceeded with the rest of the week to go. As I mentioned yesterday, June precipitation totals are already above average for the month in many if not most areas, especially in the lower and mid-elevation areas.

If I like what I see when with the models tomorrow morning, I will post early. If not, I will post midday after all of the morning model runs are complete.

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