Today’s Battle Between The Models

Wednesday 6/30  9 am

On Tuesday most of the forecast area received some nice wetting rains.  The majority of areas received .50″-1.00″. The exceptions were around Red Mesa and Marvel, as well as areas east of Grandview along the 160 corridor and generally all areas east of Bayfield.

Today is going to present several forecast challenges. Yesterday, the high-resolution NAM 3km model did a pretty good job with its precipitation “bullseyes”. It also did well showing the lighter totals in the eastern portions of the forecast area and showing the evening precipitation.

This morning that same model is portraying a similar setup for evening precipitation. But this time it is focusing on areas east of Durango West for some higher totals. I can see how that could happen because the sub-tropical moisture tap will be a little further east today. There is also a lot of moisture in the area to recycle from yesterday.

The problem is that it is the only model showing any appreciable precipitation today and tonight. The GFS, Euro, German and Canadian show trace amounts that would be consistent with virga, or rain that evaporates before it reaches the ground. It would take a very dry airmass to overcome the recycled moisture that is present today.

Here are the NAM 3km precipitation totals from noon until 6 am Thursday.

Here is the GFS for the same time period.

I will leave the other models out because they look nearly identical to the GFS above.

As I said earlier, I can make a better case for the NAM 3km model run, than I can the other four models. If I see a drastic change in the other models later today, I will post again, otherwise, the next update will be on Thursday.

Thanks in advance for any reports and, as always, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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