A Slight Warm Up And Return To Convective Showers

Thursday 7/1/21 1:45 pm

Congratulations, Meteorological Summer is 1/3 over!

The weather models have really been struggling for the last 48 hours. Yesterday the high-resolution NAM model was very far off with its morning run. The medium and low-resolution models handled the mostly dry conditions much better.

This morning, we started off with high humidity (the 90s), then the sun came out and as a result, we have seen convective storms firing across the forecast area. It is the medium and lower resolution models today that have struggled to identify the convective nature of the widely scattered storms.

The monsoonal type of flow we enjoyed earlier this week has been shut off. Earlier in the week and last weekend, the models showed the sub-tropical tap continuing to feed the storms throughout the week. You could say the models were right for the wrong reasons because most locations had exceeded their 7-day forecast totals 3 days early.

I am going to hold off on posting precipitation maps for the near term. One thing that I did notice this morning was the forecasted CAPE values today were the highest we have seen in about a week.  The peak CAPE values started around 11 am and they will persist through 4 pm. They drop off dramatically after 6 pm. For some reason, the models are showing a dramatic increase in CAPE values again between 11 pm and 1 am tonight, especially across  Southern and Southeastern La Plata County. We’ll see.

After several days of below normal temperatures, it looks like temperatures will be on the increase in the next couple of days. I do not expect the temps to return to the excessive heat we had earlier in the month.

I am going to let the models decide when my next post will be. It may be tomorrow and/or Saturday. I will definitely post Sunday morning to give everyone some guidance on the weather for all of the outdoor activities people are planning on attending.

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