Sunday 9;30 am
Yesterday afternoon everything came together just right in a few locations, including Durango. I received reports of .20″ to .60″ around town. The storms that set up were very isolated and localized. I happened to be driving back home from Durango during this and heavy rain was right over the town. By the time I got to the Nissan dealership on 160 the street was dry and there only just a couple of light sprinkles on my windshield.
For today, storm chances decrease slightly from yesterday. The best chances of rain will be in the higher terrain as well as the areas that received rain yesterday. As of this morning, southern portions of the forecast area still have some remnant moisture lingering from the last couple of days. The air is very dry to the north where high pressure is blocking the moisture. It is still very moist in New Mexico and Arizona.
Here is the water vapor imagery showing the dry air to the north (red) and the moist airmass (white) over the southern portions of the forecast area.
CAPE Values (available energy) today are elevated but at their peak they are approximately 30% lower than yesterday afternoon when they peaked between 1200-1500 between noon and 1 pm. This afternoon we will hit peak values between 3 and 4 pm.
CAPE between 3 and 4 pm
Whenever CAPE values exceed 500 you can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm. This evening it looks like the weather will cooperate for outdoor activities
The models have been advertising a better chance of storms on Monday. Unfortunately, the heat is back. It looks like it is going to stick around for the foreseeable future with low to mid 90’s expected in the lower elevations this week. Yuck!
Next update Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!