Monday 7/12 8:30 am
I have gotten some emails about the smoke that has been around the last couple of days. To the best of my knowledge, the smoke is coming from active fires very far north of our forecast area. When the winds shifted a couple of days ago the smoke drifted into our forecast area.
Here is a wildfire smoke model that I will be adding to my updates when it is appropriate. This model is a very short-term model that only extends 18 hours into the future. The higher the number, the more dense the smoke is. This run is from 5 am to 11 pm this evening.
As the headline of this post indicates, it looks like we are in for some decent rains across the forecast area beginning Tuesday afternoon. The best model agreement is through Thursday, so that is what I will focus on.
Cooler weather will accompany those showers, mid-elevation areas may struggle to get out of the 70s Wednesday and Thursday. The lower elevations will likely reach 80 degrees or low 80s depending on the timing of the showers. More on that Tuesday morning.
Here are the models’ forecasts for precipitation totals starting today and ending Thursday at 6 pm. I still expect scattered afternoon showers Friday and through the weekend, I just want to see more model agreement before I post those extended maps.
NOAA WPC blended model
For today, isolated to scattered showers will be possible with afternoon convection. Dew points are up significantly over the last 24 hours. CAPE values (available energy) will be the highest we have seen in a while.
Here are the CAPE values peaking between 1300-1700 today. This doesn’t guarantee rain, but it definitely aids in wet or dry thunderstorms development.
This is between 9 am and midnight.
Next update Tuesday, thanks for following and supporting the site!