Heavy Rain Possible Later Today And Wednesday

7/13 Tuesday 9:30 am

Yesterday, isolated showers dropped some brief heavy rain, mostly over eastern La Plata County. Edgemont Ranch picked up .35″, areas around Bayfield (in town) picked up to .25″ inches. Forest Lakes reported .57″ and Pine River Ranches picked up .67″. A good start to what could be our rainiest week so far of the summer.

When I am out in public I occasionally hear conversations around me talking about my forecasts.  Whether it is in line at the grocery store or a nearby table at a restaurant or bar, or, as was the case yesterday, at the golf course. I was near the practice greens in front of the clubhouse and I heard two gentlemen talking about the weather. One guy said, “it really looks like we are going to get some good rain this week”. The other guy said, “where are you getting that?” He replied, “Durango Weather Guy, and he usually doesn’t talk that confidently unless he feels strongly about it”.

Yes, I am confident about it. Today, showers will get started and become more widespread across the forecast area. The showers could extend well into the evening hours. Some models are extending the showers into the overnight hours and even into Wednesday morning. Showers should redevelop Wednesday and once again there is a chance that the showers will extend into the evening and overnight hours.

The highest CAPE values of the year will be present this afternoon. Values of 2000 or higher will drive storm development across the forecast area!

Here are the CAPE values between 10 am and midnight.

Precipitable water values (PWAT) will reach an inch this afternoon and exceed an inch on Wednesday. PWAT is a measure of how much liquid could potentially fall on any one particular area if it fell as a vertical column of water. The seasonal average for PWAT in July is around .65″.

I am going to do a second update this afternoon, so I can reference the very most recent model runs as they come out this morning.

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