Tuesday Afternoon Update

Tuesday 3 pm

So far, slow-moving thunderstorms have been limited to northern portions of the forecast area. The Telluride area has done well. About .50″ have fallen in the Telluride area.  Deep Creek Mesa, about a mile west of the town of Telluride, has reported 1.57″ as of 2:30 pm.  Meanwhile, it is dry and 75 in Rico. Silverton and Ouray, have had lesser amounts (so far) but some good thunderstorms are in the area.

Out of curioity, I went back and looked at yesterday mornings model runs to see how well they did with their 24 hour precipitation forecasts for Bayfield, Edgemont, Forest Lakes, and Pine River Ranches. They did horrible, not one model did well. I would give them an “F”. Maybe a “G” if there were such a thing.

The latest short term model guidance shows the peak CAPE values occuring between 4 and 5 pm. We will see. The models tend to do better with their precipitation forecasts over a 3 or 4 day period. It is very difficult to determine where the storms are going to set up. Today, and tomorrow as well, there will be very little support to steer the storms, meaning they will slow movers. Tomorrow, has been looking like the best day for heavier rains. Hopefully, the maps I posted yesterday will be “right for the wrong reasons”.  For example, iIf Pine River Ranches does not get another drop of rain the entire week, the .67″ they got yesterday is more than any model had predicted through Thursday night.

Keep the reports coming, although I am monitoring over 60 weather data collection sites throughout the area, it is always good to verify the data I see versus what the weather stations are reporting.

Next update Wednesday morning, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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