7/17 Saturday 8:55 am
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, moderately high levels of CAPE will mix with recycled moisture from several days of scattered showers to fuel the scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon. Brief, heavy downpours will be possible, favoring, but not limited to, the higher terrain. If the models are correct, we may see an increase in precipitable water (PWAT) after 6 pm that could lead to some evening and nighttime storms, we’ll see.
Here are the forecasted CAPE values from 9 am to midnight.
We are locked in this pattern and I see no signs of it changing to a drier pattern. In fact, by Tuesday or Wednesday, it looks like we could tap into subtropical moisture in a monsoonal type of flow. Enough so that it will lead to cooler afternoon highs and increase chances of heavy rains. Some of the models are showing the monsoonal flow cut off on Saturday. This doesn’t mean an end to afternoon showers, it just means we return to convective afternoon showers we have been experiencing for quite some time.
Here are the forecasted precipitation totals for the next 7 days. The models tend to handle these longer periods better than very short-term periods of 24 to 48 hours. I would also add that for the most part, the models have been under forecasting the precipitation totals all month.
Next update Sunday, thanks for following and supporting the site!