Sunday Update

7/18 Sunday 8:55 am

Yesterday, storms fired mainly north of Highway 160. Today, models are hinting that we will see more widespread coverage across the forecast area. All of the same ingredients are in place. The CAPE values are similar this morning and this afternoon. However, the models are teasing a noticeable uptick in both precipitable water (PWAT) values and CAPE late this afternoon and throughout the evening.

Here are the CAPE values from 11 am this morning through 9 pm this evening.

Here are forecasted PWAT values from 3 pm this afternoon through 6 am on Monday.

In summary, a little better chance of more widespread showers this afternoon and evening. If you miss out on these, don’t worry. Monday looks better than today. Tuesday looks better than Monday. By Wednesday and Thursday, we could see some heavy rain in many areas under monsoonal flow. Residual moisture will linger and keep convective storms firing next weekend.

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