Friday 7/23 9:20 am
The good thing about this time of year is that you never know what the weather will bring from one day to the next. The bad news for forecasters and weather models is, at least in our area, you never know what the weather will bring from one day to the next.
Yesterday, despite extremely high CAPE values and a lot of moisture over the area, only isolated storms fired over the eastern portions of the forecast area. There were just a couple of reports of heavy rain in Archuleta County.
Today is the 3rd day in a row that we have had a flood watch issued for our area. Despite having a lot of moisture in place, we have not really tapped into the direct monsoonal flow that has been set up over Arizona, and into Southern Utah and Nevada as well as Southeast California.
Here were the PWAT values (precipitable water) yesterday afternoon across the region. Notice the higher values indicated by the warmer tones of red, yellow, and chartreuse mostly to our west.
Here are the projected PWAT values from 6 am this morning to 6 am Saturday. Notice the slight push east from yesterday throughout the day and evening, followed by the slightly drier air working its way in by tomorrow morning.
The radar is much more active in the monsoon source area this morning than it was yesterday.
Hopefully, with these factors in place, we will see some more widespread showers develop this afternoon. If not, I think the FWJ (flood watch jinx) will be proven correct.
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