Stormy Saturday?

Saturday 7/24 9 am

Another day, another flood watch. A handful of happy people with the rain they have gotten the last couple of days, and a whole lot of other people (including myself) who are frustrated watching the storms miss them.

Storms were mostly isolated to scattered yesterday. There were a few reports throughout La Plata County of just under 0.50″. The biggest totals were in the northern portions of the forecast area. Silverton picked up 0.88″ and Rico got an impressive 1.38″.

Speaking of high totals, there is a networked weather station just south and west of Marvel that recorded 4″ of rain on Wednesday. I would like to try to confirm this with the owner. I don’t usually do this but here is the location. If you follow me will you please confirm this?

For today, the latest short-term high-resolution model is showing widespread showers throughout the forecast area. In fact, this is the most favorable model run I have seen all week. We will see, fingers (and everything else) are crossed.

Here is the model run in motion from 11 am today through 6 am Sunday.

The other models are not quite as robust but all of the models are highlighting the western portions of the forecast area for heavier rain potential, especially from Southern Montezuma County and up through Cortez. Also, throughout Dolores County and all of the way up to Norwood.

It is important to note that the models struggle with where the heavier rains are going to set up. The model I highlighted above has done the best job with this.

The models are in decent agreement that afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least Tuesday. From Wednesday on the models diverge in their solutions.


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