7/31 Saturday 9:15 am
As expected, storms have developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours for the last couple of days. This trend should continue for the next 3 days at least. The models diverge starting Wednesday, the European is showing an unusually dry period taking over. The GFS and Canadian show isolated afternoon showers nearly every day, but they definitely slow things down a bit.
The blended model I posted on Thursday did pretty well. So I will give it another chance. Here is the forecast for precipitation totals through Tuesday morning.
For today, CAPE values will peak late afternoon into the early evening.
The peak in CAPE values is directly related to a surge of moisture that is expected late this afternoon into the early evening, as seen below.
Most areas area have received well above average rainfall for July and we have made tremendous progress with the drought. Tomorrow the monthly forecast models will update and we can take a look at what they are saying about the future.
The next update is Sunday, thanks for following and supporting the site!