The Broken Record Keeps On Playing

8/1 (really?) Sunday 1 pm

Yesterday, isolated showers fell across SW Colorado favoring the northern portions of the forecast area. The storms looked a lot more impressive on radar than they did in the rain gauges.

Today, we have the classic difficult forecast due to the cloudy skies (so far) which limits daytime heating resulting in lower CAPE values. If the sun pops out for 3 or 4 hours our chances of storms firing in the lower and mid-elevations will increase.

The high-resolution model did not verify properly this morning so I am limited to the global and blended models. When I say it didn’t verify, I mean that I look at what that model is predicting for 8 am and compare it to what is actually happening. If they don’t match up then I can’t rely on the model to be accurate for the rest of the day. In this case, it had predicted clear skies with 0% cloud cover. That was a complete miss.

Precipitable water values are higher today which is good, but I still think the third day in a row of flood watches are jinxing us… We’ll see.

The best chances for accumulating rainfall will be today, Monday, and Tuesday. Northern and Eastern portions of the forecast area may still have enough moisture in place on Wednesday for storms to fire. If you want to look at the positive side, the humidity should drop significantly Thursday and Friday.

Here are the latest model runs for the next 72 hours of precipitation, ending Wednesday at 6 am.

Euro

German

Canadian

Blended model

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