A Pattern Change Is On The Way

8/10/21 Tuesday 1:30 pm

It has been six days since my last update. At the time I said we could expect five to ten days of drier weather. That has certainly been the case. Over the coming days, we should see precipitation chances increase. Of course, the best chance in the short term will be in the higher elevations.

As the days go by, precipitation chances will increase each day. Some models are showing very light showers in the lower and middle elevation areas by late Thursday or Friday. The Euro is the driest model in the short term. It is not showing light showers for the lower elevations until the weekend.

I am going to hold off on posting precipitation maps until I see better agreement among the models. Hopefully, that will be tomorrow but it will likely be Thursday.

As far as the smoke goes, the worst is behind us, at least for the next 48 hours. I am not saying it will be clear, I am just saying we won’t experience the conditions we did a couple of days ago. My Wildfire smoke model only extends through 48 hours. The model did a tremendous job over the last few days. Yesterday, it predicted the smoke leaving the area from west to east within an hour of it happening.

Here it is, put into motion starting at 6 am this morning and ending Wednesday morning at 6 am. The higher the number the more particulates in the air. The number does not indicate the air quality index. For a frame of reference, during the smokiest days, we experienced model readings in the mid to upper 20s.

Did you notice it picking up on the small fire south of Archuleta County near the New Mexico-Colorado border?

Next update Wednesday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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