Thursday Afternoon Update

8/12 1:20 pm

Yesterday strong storms developed over the La Platas. The storms drifted south and dropped 0.15″ to 0.35″ near Mancos. The storms tried to drift east but dry air eroded them before anything could happen.

One model showed that set up happening, all of the others missed the development. This shows you how much trouble the models are having from day to day and hour by hour.

The model that was accurate yesterday is showing very spotty light showers, again over the La Platas as well as southern Archuleta County this afternoon. The models are also showing spotty development for Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, I don’t feel like I can trust them at this point so I will wait and see what I see tomorrow.

The European deterministic model is still an outlier for this weekend and next week. When I look at the Euro family 51 member multi-model I am seeing a more encouraging picture that more closely resembles what the other global models are showing for the long term. I am going to hold off on maps one more day. Tomorrow, I will share the 7 day forecasted precipitation totals from the models.

Thanks for the reports, it helps when the models are this inconsistent. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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