Friday Smoke Forecast And Weather Update

8/13 Friday 9 am

It does not look like smoke will be an issue over the next 24 hours. Here is the smoke forecast.

At the moment, Saturday does not look like it will present any problems either. I am going to have to keep an eye on Sunday and Monday. The 48-hour loop shows a large plume of dense smoke heading east-south-east on Sunday. 48 hours is the maximum run time on the smoke model. You can see the plume approaching when I zoom out into a regional view.

I will update you on that tomorrow.

Scattered storms fired again yesterday afternoon. I did not get any reports of significant accumulations. Expect the same thing to happen this afternoon. On Saturday, the models already diverge. I tend to believe the wetter versions of the models, based on what I have seen the last couple of days. What I am seeing is increased convection for Saturday and Sunday due to higher CAPE values on both days.

The models are still pretty mixed with how much precipitation we can expect over the next week. I decided to display the NOAA WPC model which is a blended model. It is roughly equivalent to the average of the 5 models I usually look at.

Here is its precipitation forecast through Friday, August 20th at 6 am.

Next update Saturday morning, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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