Saturday Update

8/14 Saturday 8:30 am

Smoke will not be an issue for the next 24 hours. It may become more of an issue for northern portions of the forecast area tomorrow evening through Monday morning. If you are in Telluride, Rico, Ridgway, and Ouray you may want to catch my Sunday update. This will also affect Dove Creek and the Norwood area. Montrose is officially just north of my forecast area, but if you are traveling through there late tomorrow you may also be affected.

Here is the 24-hour smoke forecast.


Some sneaky strong storms developed across the forecast area yesterday. Hesperus reported  0.90″. Cortez had a strong storm blow through with amounts ranging from 0.43″ to 0.70″. Rafter J, Lake Durango, DW 1&2, Trappers Crossing, and Shenandoah reported between 0.25″ to 0.40″. Most of the other locations across the forecast area that received some rain reported less than 0.25″.

Today it looks like we will have a similar setup. One of the biggest differences between today and yesterday is that the CAPE values will be noticeably higher. Here are the hourly CAPE values beginning at 11 am today through 6 am Sunday. Remember CAPE is simply a measure of the available energy to develop thunderstorms.

The other difference between today and yesterday is moisture. There will be recycled moisture from yesterday afternoon, and there will also be a noticeable uptick in moisture coming from the south after 4 pm. The increased moisture will last through the night. This could lead to evening showers and thunderstorms. I would not rule out a late-night shower as dewpoints rise into the mid-50s.

Next update Sunday morning, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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