Sunday Update

8/15 Sunday 8:50 am

Smoke is going to make a comeback to the northern and far western portions of the forecast area (Montezuma County) later today. At the moment, it looks like some of that smoke may drift south into La Plata County and Archuleta County throughout the day on Monday. It may even work its way into Northern New Mexico. That could change, and I will update that tomorrow. Here is the 48-hour smoke forecast.

Despite the favorable conditions, only isolated storms developed yesterday. A couple of mostly dry thunderstorms developed overnight. I woke up to lightning around 3 am.

For today, very favorable conditions will be in place for thunderstorm development. The CAPE values will be substantially higher today. Additionally, we will see a surge of moisture arriving over the southern portions of the forecast early this afternoon. Here are the CAPE values from 11 am through 6 am Monday.

Looking ahead, the models are in good agreement (for once) that we will see scattered showers develop Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Smoke could limit development, we will see. For Wednesday, models all agree we are going to see widespread showers and thunderstorms. Models diverge starting Thursday, so here are the precipitation forecast totals through Thursday at 6 am.





WPC blended model

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